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# MAT 540 Midterm Exam (5 Sets)

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This Tutorial contains 5 Sets of Midterm Exam

MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 1

Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2  A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Question 3  A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Question 4   A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5   Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

Question 6   Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Question 7   Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 8   The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Question 9   In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

Question 10   __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Question 11   The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Question 12   Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Question 13   A seed value is a(n)

Question 14   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Question 15  Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

Question 16   __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Question 17  worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22

The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

Question 18   __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 19   In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

Question 20   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

Question 21

Question 22   Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Question 23   Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Question 24   Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Question 25 An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07

What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

Question 26   An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

Question 27   A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 28   A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 29   The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).

If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

Question 30  An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Question 31  A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?

Question 32 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Question 33 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Question 34 Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

Question 35   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 36 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Question 37 Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 38   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 39   The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 40   This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 2

Question 1  Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2  A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Question 3  An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Question 4  A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5  Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Question 6  Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Question 7  Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 8  Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 9  __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Question 10  In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

Question 11  The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

Question 12  Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Question 13  A seed value is a(n)

Question 14  In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

Question 15  Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

Question 16  In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

Question 17  __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Question 18  __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Question 19  Worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.

What is the expected yield of the crop?

Question 20  __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Question 21  Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Question 23  __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Question 24  __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 25  A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 26  An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

Question 27  A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 28  A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 29  An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Question 30  The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).

If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = \$50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.

Question 31  Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

Question 32  The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 33  The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

Question 34  Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Question 35 Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

Question 36   This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Question 37   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Question 38  Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Year    Demand           Forecast
Question 39  Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 40  Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 3

Question 1   Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2   An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Question 3   A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Question 4   A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5   Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Question 6   A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

Question 7   The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Question 8   Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 9   In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

Question 10   __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Question 11   The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

Question 12   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Question 13   Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Question 14   Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

Question 15   Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

Question 16   __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Question 17   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

Question 18   Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Question 19   Consider the following demand and forecast.

Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Question 20   Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Question 21   __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “\$” in your answer.

Question 31   A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of
Question 32   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 33   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Question 34   The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 35   Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

Question 36   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Question 37   Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Question 38   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

Question 39   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 40 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 4

Question 1   Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2 An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

Question 3   A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Question 4   A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5   Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

Question 6   A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

Question 7   The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

Question 8   Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 9   Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

Question 10   In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

Question 11   The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

Question 12   Consider the following frequency of demand:

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

Question 13   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Question 14   Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Question 15   A seed value is a(n)

Question 16   __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

Question 17   __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Question 18  Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Question 19   __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Question 20   Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Question 21   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

Question 22 worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?

Question 23   __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 24   __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Question 25   A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 26   A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

Question 27   The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

Question 28   An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

The probability of winning at least \$1,000.00 is ________.

Question 29   An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

Question 30   The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

•  Question 31   Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

•  Question 32 This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

Question 33   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

Question 34   Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

Question 35 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

Question 36   Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

Question 37 The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

Question 38   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

Question 39   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

Question 40   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 5

Question 1   Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

Question 2   A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

Question 3   A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

Question 4   A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

Question 5   Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

Question 6   Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

Question 7   Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 8    Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

Question 9    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

Question 10    __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Question 11   The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

Question 12    Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

Question 13    Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

Question 14    Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Question 15   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

Question 16    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Question 17    __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Question 18    __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Question 19    rob 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
The estimated average price per bushel is \$16.80.<

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